Thursday, June 25, 2009

rain rain gone again: ranjan's new article

On Tuesday farmers woke up looking at the sky with the hope to spot some moving clouds. But that was not to be. Yet another day passed to make Orissa even more dry and distressful. Only a week is left for June to end, but the state has not received any worthy rain. To make things worse Sambalpur recorded highest temperatures for three consecutive days on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to gain the ignominious identity of being the hottest place of the country.
Dams, ponds, rivers, wells of the so called water surplus Orissa is drier than never before. An assessment by Water Initiatives Orissa in rural western Orissa villages found that each rural household are spending about 20 to 60 percent more time in collection of water this year than earlier years. Ground water levels have reached new lows. Everybody is complaining that days are unbearable and nights are suffocating. Senior persons are describing how they have never witnessed such heat and water stress in their life.
The farmers have been left in the lurch as monsoon predictions have also gone haywire. When the cyclone ‘AILA’ came, the meteorology department hurriedly announced early arrival of monsoon with that. Though it did not bring usual widespread rainfall in most parts of Orissa, many farmers believed pre-monsoon rainfall as monsoon rainfall and went for early sowing. Now a month has passed since the AILA and the state is more parched and more disillusioned than ever before.
Now, farmers are in desperation and disarray. Those who did sow have almost lost the crop and will have to do that again. Agriculture is already a fortnight behind and god knows how many days it will take more for the rainfall to arrive. Ponds and rivers are still dry. Go to any interior forest area and you will find animals and birds dying in hordes for want of drinking water. Idle hydro power units are taking huge tolls on electricity. And suddenly everybody, including the government, have realised that climate change can be too ugly and unbearable.
In this grossly abnormal and confused weather, Water Initiatives Orissa did a status check of some of the key sectors.
Agriculture:
Gajamarudi: As per the information from the agriculture department, sowing in directly sown lands (mostly rain-fed) are about 30 percent behind target. The department had estimated that sowing will be over in about 7 lakh hectares by June. But it has been stuck under 5 lakh hectares. This figure too may be misleading as most of sown crops will have to be re-sown again due to Gaja Marudi (Germination Drought).
rrigated areas no better: While things in the rain-fed areas are pretty worrisome, irrigated areas are not too well off either. There is acute shortage or water in most reservoirs. On Tuesday, Hirakud and Indravati reservoirs had only 43,048 and 2,274 Hectare Meters (Ham) water respectively. They are the two largest reservoirs with big irrigation command areas apart from other uses. Release of water from Hirakud reservoir for irrigation was delayed by almost a week. Water of Hirakud reservoir is now being used to generate power in the peak evening period. On a single day on Tuesday, the reservoir lost an estimated 1,952 Ham of water to release for irrigation, power generation, industrial drawal and urban water supply. This implies that at this rate the Hirakud reservoir could at best sustain for 20 days maximum. But given the rate of siltation, water supply in the Sasan canal of Hirakud reservoir is already facing threat. So though statistics may imply that 20 more days may be sustained, in practice that is absolutely improbable and Hirakud is likely to face severe shortage in a week time. Similarly, no real water is being released into the irrigation canals of Indravati project as the reservoir has already reached the lowest utilisable level. Thus irrigated agriculture has already been delayed there.
Seed distress may spoil salvage drive: The situation is most likely to aggravate as farmers may face tremendous seed scarcity. Promotion of high-yielding varieties of seeds and stress on ‘seed replacement’ has started a culture of seed dependence among farmers. The state government has targets to supply 4 lakh quintals of paddy seeds this season. Out of that the government has already sold 3.4 quintals till now. This is a big increase against last year’s total supply of 2.5 lakh quintals. Still complaints of seed scarcity are coming from everywhere in Orissa. Now that farmers will require seeds again, seed distress is likely to quite severe. However, the government agriculture department is doing its bit in calming nerves by saying that backup plans are in place.
SRI and traditional seeds may become the saving grace: In this situation System of Rice Intensification and farmers who used their wisdom and stored sufficient seeds may save some worries. Other crops have suffered also: Other crops like groundnut, banana etc. have extensively suffered too. The possibility of reviving those crops are dying with each passing dry days.
Energy production in doldrums:
Hardly four days had passed after energy minister Mr. Atanu Sabyasachi declared in the floor of Assembly on June 10, 2009 that there will be no power cuts anymore in Orissa from then on wards, the state is reeling under acute power cuts. The state is in for at least four hours of declared power cuts and uncountable numbers of undeclared power cuts/failures. Arguing that while the demand now is 2,251 MW against an availability of 2,290 MW of power, the minister had declared that Orissa is now a power surplus state. But just a week later the minister toured with a begging bowl to beg few more Megawatts of supplies from the Center or from the Captive Power Plants. The minister came to know the very hard fact that Orissa’s demand is not 2,251 MW but close to 2,900 MW which makes the state a deficient energy state.
Orissa’s power houses are gasping for water: While Hirakud and Indravati have still some water left in them, they are of little use for energy production now. Other major reservoirs like Rengali and Upper Kolab have already reached their dead level. On Tuesday Orissa’s hydro-power units produced a meagre 335 MW. Only Balimela and Machhkund reservoirs have some descent water storage left.
Thermal power plants are in acute shortage of water and coal: The mega Thermal Power Plant at Talcher is having coal stocks that can last for a maximum of four days. Similar is the case with NALCO. NALCO is now drawing about 30 MW of energy from the grid, when that company was expected to supply to grid. Many smaller captive power plants like the Eastern Steel and Power Ltd (ESPL)have shut down for shortage of water.
Dam management:
Though the government disagrees, dam management – especially of Hirakud and Rengali - have always been shrouded in controversies. Water supply into the irrigation channels was delayed by a week at Hirakud. Power generation has been relegated from November. Dry season (November to June) power generation this year is about half the level of what was produced in 2003-04. Though power generation is a higher priority than water supply to industries, still government has preferred to curtail power generation that stopping supplies to industrial units from Hirakud reservoir. A thorough assessment of water flow into the dam is long overdue. Similar is the case with Rengali reservoir. Real irrigation is yet to start from the reservoir. But still the dam has no utilisable water left. When irrigation starts, more problems with Rengali dam are sure to crop up. Though climate change and accompanying rainfall and run-off abnormalities are a fact, still the dam managers have faltered in making proper assessment and prioritisation.
Met prediction:
Farmers have always complained of inadequate or false predictions by the meteorology department. This year was another instance of false prediction. In the later parts of May, the met department predicted that monsoon will arrive about 10 days earlier in Orissa. When the Cyclone AILA arrived in the third week of May, the met department hurriedly announced that the monsoon has arrived. But a month has passed since, and still the monsoon is not in sight. The met department is busy in finding excuses. But the fact is that their false prediction of an early monsoon and then the declaration of monsoon arrival have waylaid many farmers to early sowing and subsequent loss of crops. Even now also the met department is shying away from giving clear prediction on when the rainfall will actually arrive. Clearly, our weather prediction system requires many things more – especially on prediction of monsoon and rainfall which impacts farmers very badly.
Heat bowl - Sambalpur’s ignominious identity as the hottest place of the country:
Sambalpur was once considered as the city with the most moderate climate Western Orissa. But that identity has been brutally lost to blazing sun and blasphemous heat emission from sprouting industries nearby. One 22nd, 23rd and 24th June this year, Sambalpur recorded temperatures of 46.6, 46.2 and 45.80 C respectively which was highest not only in Orissa but also in the whole country. June maximum temperatures have breached records in most other parts of Orissa. Clearly Orissa has become hub of heat.
Ecology and Water improvement cannot be dithered anymore:
This is too much. We have already wasted and degraded a lot in our belief that development requires industrialisation, deforestation and unsustainable use of natural resources – primarily the water. We must have to shed that. This year should be eye openers that if at all we need any investment for growth, then such investments have to be made to make the ecology and our surrounding worthy of sustaining our livings.
Water Initiatives Orissa has always come with facts, evidences and public perceptions that weather in Orissa is behaving more unnaturally than many parts of the world. We sincerely hope that the present distress situation will necessitate positive action at the policy and community level. Government and people will start putting more value to creation of ecological assets. Otherwise, we have no scope to dilly-dally and dither from the hard task of ecological conservation and just use of resources and still expect that the weather will behave normally. Thus Water Initiatives Orissa calls the government to immediately take steps,
To increase surface water storage (not through large dams but through small but intense pond storages) by at least 200 percent in the next five years.
To increase forest covers (not just forest area) up to 40 percent from the present 31 percent level.
To stop permission for ecologically destructing industries like thermal power plants, mines, aluminium smelters and refineries etc.
To give fresh impetus to ecological asset creation through NREGS. The government must take up elaborate awareness drives about the NREGS and increase annual spending by at least four times than the present level of Rs 673.9 Crores only which is too little given the scope of the scheme. The government must come out with a comprehensive ‘Climate Change Combat Plan’ and truthfully follow that.
Massive drives and campaigns to make people aware about energy, water and natural conservations have to be undertaken on priority. Non-Governmental Organisations, Private Sector and Educational Institutions should be drafted into the scheme in more effective manners. Curriculums at all levels of education have to be changed to give more emphasis on ecological conservation. WIO appeals the media and publication houses to be carriers of positive vibes to instil a sense of responsibility for ecology conservation and improvement.

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